Insolvency code to keep out wilful defaulters (BL, BS, FE 23.11.17)
The Cabinet approved the promulgation of an Ordinance to amend the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, which is expected to bar wilful defaulters from buying back their own stressed assets. Sources said the proposed Ordinance is expected to streamline the selection of buyers and stop wilful defaulters from buying back stressed assets they previously owned. Accordingly, a new section will be inserted to list persons ineligible to be ‘Resolution Applicants’. These would include wilful defaulters, undischarged insolvents, disqualified directors, persons who have indulged in preferential transactions or under-valued transactions or fraudulent transactions as determined by the adjudicating authority, and persons who are promoters or in the control of such persons whose account is classified as non-performing assets beyond a prescribed duration. The Ordinance would also prescribe basic eligibility criteria for resolution applications, depending on the size of the business. Additionally, it is understood to provide a robust due diligence framework to help the Committee of Creditors assess creditworthiness, credibility and other parameters. The Ordinance is expected to take effect from Thursday. “The amendments will be tabled in Parliament in the next session,” Jaitley said. The Code was passed by Parliament last year and became operational from December 2016. However, concerns had emerged that promoters could buy back the stressed assets.
Citi hit with $6.5 mn in US fines over student loans (BL 23.11.17)
The US Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) said it had ordered Citibank to pay $6.5 million for allegedly harming borrowers with student loan servicing failures. The agency said it ordered Citibank to end illegal loan practices and pay $3.75 million in redress to consumers and a $2.75 million civil penalty. Mark Costiglio, a spokesman for Citi, said, “We are pleased to resolve this matter.” Student debt can carry tax benefits but Citi failed to guide customers through paperwork that could lead to tax savings, according to the agency. Some clients were also made to pay late fees and interest when they were eligible to defer such loan payments, said the agency. Citi shed $32 billion of its student loan investments in 2010, selling them to Discover Financial Services. Citibank has roughly $1.4 trillion in assets, according to the Federal Reserve.
UBI gets SEBI approval for Rs 1,000-cr equity issue via QIP (BS 23.11.17)
United Bank of India said it has received market regulator SEBI's approval for issue of equity shares worth Rs 1,000 Cr by way of institutional placement. The Kolkata-headquartered bank had in January informed the bourses it planned to raise up to Rs 1,500 Cr through qualified institutional placement (QIP), rights or public issue. The lender had raised Rs 127.49 Cr through sale of shares to qualified institutional investors in May. The bank approved allotting over 5.49 Cr shares to qualified institutional buyers at issue price of Rs 23.22 per share, it had said in a regulatory filing. UBI had earlier said it plans to raise up to Rs 500 Cr of Basel III-compliant listed additional tier-I debt instruments in the nature of bonds. The lender would seek approval for this amount from its board, which is scheduled to meet on December 6. At the same meeting, the bank also proposes to get the board's nod for the issue of 5 Cr equity shares in the form of ESOPs/ESPs in one or more tranches.
Housing finance market overcrowded: Arundhati Bhattacharya (BS 23.11.17)
The number of housing finance companies has not only grown to more than 70 from 55 in 2012-13, but there are 80 more who are in the middle of starting their operations, said Arundhati Bhattacharya, former chairman of SBI, while flagging this development as a concern. “The growth rate of existing housing finance companies’ businesses have already come down. So don’t know how many more the market can accommodate,” she said. According to data shared by her, major cities having got a record inventory — the highest being 65 months in Noida and the lowest being 29 months in Hyderabad — highlighting the slump in demand. But the sector cannot be ignored by the government as a recent study by the National Council of Applied Economic Research revealed every Rs 1-lakh investment in housing created 2.6 jobs. The government’s effort to create dedicated freight corridors and highways would increase employment opportunities and hence the demand for houses along these corridors would grow. “The real estate sector has several challenges but at the same it is critical to fuel growth in the country. High cost of land and inappropriate land parcels in cities are a major issue, besides high taxes and stamp duty,” she said, adding lack of rapid transport in cities as another major concern. There are several sectors that are related to real estate: Cement, steel, paints, tiles, wood panels, lightings, pipes, adhesives and construction chemicals. So the growth of real estate sector is critical to the overall economy.
Ordinance to tighten IBC may favour new investors to buy stressed assets (FE 23.11.17)
The ordinance for making changes to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) is likely to give investors with a well-proven track record a better chance to buy the stressed assets, VG Kannan, CEO of Indian Banks’ Association, said. It is also likely to act as a deterrent to future promoters of businesses from defaulting wilfully, he added. “Under this amendment, the outside buyer will have a very good chance. New promoters will also know that this is the scenario, and down the line the cases of defaults will come down,” Kannan said. According to sources, the Union Cabinet has cleared the ordinance aimed at preventing promoters who are wilful defaulters or have a history of fraud from buying their companies. “I think that this is good step forward and some of the other changes that needs to be done will also happen,” Kannan said, adding that for bankers, the viability of the resolution proposals are top priority. He also said that it is clear that through this ordinance the authorities are trying to identify promoters who have committed a fraud or have been found to be willful defaulters. “If there is no evidence that such things have happened, the existing promoters can bid for their projects. The ordinance is providing for genuine defaulters to come back and bid,” he added. Seshagiri Rao, joint MD and group chief financial officer, JSW Steel said that in addition to this amendment, a uniform bidding and evaluation criterion is a must for the IBC process. “The objective of the IBC is to maximise the value for the creditors. If this is the objective, then there are certain amendments that need to be made to prevent the value from getting eroded, because of lack of amendment to other acts such as income tax or Sebi listing requirement, competition law, or stamp act. These require to be re-looked at to ensure that while the value to the creditors is maximised, there won’t be any additional cost for prospective bidders.”
Andhra Bank has launched a new scheme for self-help groups (SHGs) to encourage
April-October trade deficit soars 60%: DBS report (BL, BS 23.11.17)
The trade deficit has ballooned to $88 billion between April and October, up 60% from the comparable period a year ago due to weak exports and a sharp rise in imports, says a report. “The problem is two-fold; weak export growth of 9% year-on-year, coupled with a sharp 23% rise in imports during the April-October of this fiscal year, taking the overall trade deficit to $88 billion, which is up 60% year-on-year,” Singaporean brokerage DBS said in a report. But the report expects exports to pick up once the GST-driven distortions subsided, but it warned that the traditional product mix will hinder its ability to participate in the ongoing trade upturn. The composition of the export basket, even if well-diversified, has prevented the economy from benefiting from the upturn in the regional export cycle this year, it noted. The upturn is largely led by electronic shipments, including semi-conductors and consumer electronics, which makes up less than a tenth of exports. Instead, two-thirds of the basket comprises traditional product groups, including gems and jewellery, pharma, textiles, engineering goods, food, and fuel. Further, GST-related uncertainty and the effect of duty-drawback have added to the headwinds, the report noted. Imports, on the other hand, will be influenced by the rising crude prices, even as supply-chain disruptions ease in the second half, it added. Oil imports rose by 20% till date from last financial year’s 12%. Demand for other commodities also remained strong, the report noted. “Looking ahead, we expect the lift in imports from GST-related uncertainties to be ironed out by policy fine-tuning and relief measures,” the report said. But the report warns that lower exports and higher imports spells trouble for the current account deficit.
India's prosperity level lowest among peers: S&P (BS 23.11.17)
Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has noted that India has the lowest level of prosperity among all investment-grade economies, explaining why it has not upgraded its ratings. “Of all investment-grade sovereigns, India displays by far the lowest level of prosperity. At about $2,000 per capita, its income level is a third lower than Morocco’s and the Philippines’,” S&P stated. Last week, Moody’s Investors Service had upgraded India’s rating by a notch to two grades above junk, citing the many reforms undertaken by the Narendra Modi government. But the analysis by S&P has been in sharp contrast to that of Moody’s, which said that while India’s general government debt was higher than the median debt level of countries ranked similarly, “the impact of the high debt load is already mitigated somewhat by the large pool of private savings available to finance government debt.” S&P had assigned India the lowest investment grade with a stable outlook. However, it acknowledged that economic growth in India has been strong. “Fast economic growth has been the reason why economic support for this rating (lowest investment grade) has been as strong as it is. Without this economic growth story, we would have assessed economic support at a weaker level and the rating would probably not be investment grade.” The agency had last upgraded India by a notch in January 2007 to BBB- up from junk rating of BB+.
Cabinet nod to India's membership of European Development Bank (BS 23.11.17)
The Union Cabinet, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi approved India's membership for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), for which the required steps will be initiated by the Finance Ministry, an official statement said. "Necessary steps will be initiated by the Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance to acquire the membership of the EBRD," the ministry said in a statement. "Membership of EBRD would enhance India's international profile and promote its economic interests. India's investment opportunities would get a boost. It would increase the scope of cooperation between India and EBRD through co-financing opportunities in manufacturing, services, information technology and energy," it said. EBRD's core operations pertain to private sector development in their countries of operation. The membership would help India leverage the technical assistance and sectoral knowledge of the bank for the benefit of the development of private sector. "This would contribute to an improved investment climate in the country. The membership of EBRD would enhance the competitive strength of the Indian firms, and provide an enhanced access to international markets in terms of business opportunities, procurement activities, and consultancy assignments," the statement said.
Goldman Sachs bullish on India; says economic growth may bounce back this year itself (FE 23.11.17)
Global financial services major Goldman Sachs sees India’s GDP growth rate bouncing back to 7.6% in the current financial year itself, and to 8% in FY19, a significant jump from a three-year low GDP growth a quarter ago. Interestingly, Goldman Sachs also expects the 50-share Nifty to return up to 16% in the year. Andrew Tilton, chief Asia-Pacific economist for Goldman Sachs Group Inc says that India’s economy could prove to be stronger than expected as the shock from structural reforms such as demonetisation and introduction of GST begin to fade. “The good thing about next year is we don’t think we’re going to get those shocks again,” Andrew Tilton of Goldman Sachs said. Timothy Moe, chief Asia Pacific regional equity strategist at Goldman Sachs says that growth will be the chief driver for India. Goldman Sachs has retained its one-year Nifty target at 11,600. Nifty was trading at 10,329 points on Wednesday morning. In fact, Morgan Stanley, another global firm, says that India’s economy will grow by more than 10% annually in the coming decade, buoyed by demographics, reforms and globalization. According to Morgan Stanley, India, which was already on its way to growing at a brisk pace over the next decade, has found excellent growth triggers due to two major initiatives—digitizing its predominantly cash-based economy and reforming its archaic tax system— “which have the potential to amplify India’s expansion, making it one of the world’s fastest-growing large economies over the next 10 years,” says the report. CLSA too reiterated its bullish on India in a recent report.
Uday Kotak explains what India must do to match China’s GDP per capita (FE 23.11.17)
Even as India cheers Moody’s credit rating upgrade and the recent boost from the 30 places jump in ease of doing business, top banker Uday Kotak says the nation will soon repeat the similar success on another frontier, by matching a five times bigger China in terms of GDP per capita. “I think it is doable. In addition to the hard stuff, India needs to do a lot of the soft stuff,” Uday Kotak said. “If I look at China and India, in the last 20 years, India has grown at 5.5%, and our per capita GDP is at about $1,800. China is about 5 times our size. India needs to grow at about 8% per annum in per capita GDP for the next 20 years to reach China’s level. If you take a population growth of 1-1.2%, for the next 20 years we must grow at 9% to reach the current GDP of China,” Uday Kotak said, laying threadbare the hard work required to get there. The Vice Chairman and MD of Kotak Mahindra Bank says that India must focus on improving quality of its infrastructure. “I think India has come a long way, but the road ahead is even more interesting and challenging. For a country to be a truly developed country, it’s not that the poor have cars, it’s that the rich use public transport. That’s something we must do, how do bring the level of infrastructure and its quality, and the softer aspects have really got us there.” India is likely to be the world’s fastest-growing large economy in the next 10 years, driven by digitisation, favourable demographics, globalisation and reforms, predicts a recent Morgan Stanley report.
Cabinet approves setting up of 15th finance panel (BL, BS, FE, ET 23.11.17)
The Cabinet has approved the setting up of the 15th Finance Commission (FFC), which will recommend ways to distribute funds between the Centre and states. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the members of the commission and its terms of reference would be notified in due course. Recommendations would have to be in place before April 1, 2020, he said. “Normally, it takes two years for the finance panel to give its recommendations." The main terms of reference of the panel are mandated by Article 280 of the Constitution. The FFC might be tasked with suggesting ways to provide more fiscal space and resources for states to deal with agricultural and other economic crises. Former parliamentarian, revenue and expenditure secretary N K Singh might be chairman of the FFC. This time, the FFC would have to take into account the impact of the goods and services tax, which kicked in from July, on the resources of the Center and states. The FFC might also be tasked with recommending the debt-gross state domestic product (GSDP) levels of each state and the combined debt-gross domestic product (GDP) levels for all states. Just like the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management panel had suggested a road map for the Centre to reduce its debt-GDP ratio to 40% by FY2023, the FFC might recommend a road map for states, sources said. The recommendations of the FFC would be applicable from FY20-25.
KKR looks to buy another NBFC to bolster lending business (BS 23.11.17)
KKR, one of the largest global investment firms, is looking to acquire a non-banking financial company (NBFC) in the country to bolster its lending business, said a source in the know. The investor, which has assets under management (AUM) of $149 billion globally, wants to disburse loan against properties, shares, structured loans and and lend across sectors, the source said. “It wants to buy a NBFC which has AUM of at least Rs 10,000 Cr. Though it has two NBFCs at present, KKR wants to buy another NBFC so that it can scale up faster,” said the source. KKR has already sent feelers to bankers, sources said. When contacted, KKR declined to comment on the matter. If its plans go through, this will be the fourth non-banking financial company it will own. KKR has sector-agnostic NBFC called KKR India Financial Services, set up in 1995, and a real estate-focused NBFC called KKR India Asset Finance where Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund GIC is an investor. Its investee company Avendus Capital also has a NBFC. According to the source, KKR has lent over Rs 15,000 Cr through its NBFCs and debt funds. Its US counterpart Blackstone is also looking to start lending to corporates and other entities, reports said early this year. According to a senior executive with a Mumbai-based NBFC, KKR can acquire only PE-backed NBFC as other promoter-led NBFCs are not up for sale now. KKR follows multi-format strategy to build its loan book. In addition to NBFCs, it also has multiple alternative investment funds which provide loans.
With no negative surprises in Q2, experts heave a sigh of relief (BL 23.11.17)
After a lackadaisical period of three-four quarters, the performance of India Inc in the July-September 2017 quarter has enthused analysts and market experts as there have been no negative surprises in any of the key three parameters: sales, operating profit and net profit, though growth rates have been modest. According to Edelweiss Research, “Breadth was better as, barring banks, most sectors surprised on the positive side.” “2QFY18 results were generally good with modest improvement in underlying trends in the case of a few sectors. 2QFY18 results saw earnings upgrades for FY2018E and FY2019E, the first after several quarters of downgrades of earnings,” Kotak Institutional Equities added. Restocking after implementation of the Goods & Services Tax, early festive season, higher commodity prices and government spending (in rural areas) helped NSE 500 companies (excluding financial services, oil and gas) report a topline growth of 8.3% year-on-year in the September 2017 quarter, compared to 6.7% in the June 2017 quarter, according to data provided by Capitaline. Growth in operating profit and net profit also improved to 11.7% (double-digit after a long time) and 4.8% in the September 2017 quarter versus 2.3% and 0.2% in the June 2017 quarter, respectively. Financial services are excluded for the analysis as these are reported in a different format unlike manufacturing companies and also because of non-performing assets, which affect profit differently every quarter.
Tide is turning for corporate earnings: Morgan Stanley (BS 23.11.17)
Corporate earnings have failed to meet expectations quarter after quarter. And the latest one (September quarter) is no different. However, foreign brokerage Morgan Stanley believes the trend could reverse this quarter onwards. “Some market participants may be anchored to the decade gone by, remaining skeptical about the earnings growth recovery. We believe the cycle is turning as corporate India has come out of the balance sheet and earnings recession. We expect an earning CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) at 20% in the next two years,” said analysts Sheela Rathi and Ridham Desai. For the June-September quarter, the combined net profit of a broader sample of 1,852 companies was down 2.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), better than a 10.3% y-o-y decline in the first quarter, an analysis shows. In the September 2016 quarter, however, profit grew at 5.6%. The combined net sales for the entire universe were up 8.7% against an 8.3% growth in the June 2017 quarter and a 4.2% growth a year ago. Morgan Stanley says the revenue growth for energy companies was healthy in the September quarter, while telecom companies disappointed on most financial metrics.
Moody's ups outlook on India Inc (BS 23.11.17)
Rating agency Moody's sees an improvement in the credit profiles of India Inc next year, driven by better sales as it expects GST-related disruptions to wane, leading to an allover recovery in economic activities. It can be recalled that for the first time in almost 14 years, over the past weekend, Moody's had upgraded the country's sovereign ratings to Baa2 with a stable outlook. The last rating revision was in 2004. "We expect GDP growth of around 7.6% will result in higher sales volumes, which, along with new production capacities and benign commodity prices, will support pre-tax growth of 5-6% over the next 12-18 months," Kaustubh Chaubal, a vice-president and senior analyst at Moody's said in a report on the 2018 outlook for non-financial Indian corporates. He said refinancing needs in 2018 will be manageable for most companies, given their improving access to capital markets and their large cash balances. "Corporates' cross-border bond maturities will also be manageable for the next three years," Saranga Ranasinghe, an assistant vice-president and analyst at Moody's, said. The agency said a further simplification of GST and other structural reforms, or an improvement in commodity prices, resulting in higher operating profit could further improve companies' credit profiles. That apart an improvement in asset valuations, providing a means of deleveraging for some corporates will also result in improvement in their credit profiles, they said.
Fundraising abroad gets easier for firms (BS 23.11.17)
India’s rating upgrade by Moody’s has not infused too much enthusiasm in the domestic bond markets but it would make it easier for companies to raise funds abroad. In the domestic markets, foreign investors have exhausted their limits in government and corporate bonds. Moody’s said in a report on Indian companies that the cross-border bond maturities for the next three years for companies rated by it were manageable, even as cross-border issuance for such companies had exceeded the average of six years. Year-to-date, Moody’s-rated companies have raised $6.2 billion in bonds, while the average in the past six years was about $4.5 billion. According to market sources, year-to-date, Indian companies have raised a little more than $16 billion through bonds. Market watchers said another $2 billion would be raised by December, including Reliance Industries’ $800 million. Experts said in 2018, the fundraising could be more than $18 billion, as S&P and Fitch could also arrive at a positive decision about India. For all practical purposes, a rating upgrade by one global agency could increase the chances of other agencies not taking a negative decision. This is a perceived stability that a lot of foreign investors seek from a country. As a thumb rule, though, an investment decision is arrived at by considering the lowest of the ratings. Fitch and S&P still have near speculative grade ratings for the country. The perception about India’s top companies was hugely favourable in the overseas market, said bond dealers. And, the rule of thumb might not be always followed when investing in the papers of a top Indian company. “In the international market, a rating upgrade matters. Overseas investors are happy to take a lower return if investment is perceived as a lower risk,” said Harihar Krishnamurthy, treasurer at First Rand Bank. According to a banker with a foreign bank, the standing of Indian papers in Asia, particularly in Japan and Singapore, were on a par with bonds issued by reputed companies from higher-rated countries. But investors in Europe and the US are still largely driven by the ratings yardstick.